What happened to Swine Flu?

Posted: Monday, May 24, 2010 | Posted by Debajyoti Datta |

After all the media coverage of Swine Flu had died down, I thought it would be appropriate to have a look at the current status of the Influenza H1N1 pandemic.

Once I got hold of the relevant data, it was clear that H1N1 had two major peaks in terms of cases in India, one was in mid September, 2009 and another in late December, 2009. There after the incidence of new cases has diminished considerably though still occurring.
In the last update of WHO that I could get hold of, 18097 deaths have been reported from over 214 countries. This was on 16th May 2010.

In India, as of 11th May 2010, there has been 31837 lab confirmed cases, with 1511 deaths. The highest number of cases occurred in December 2009. 7708 lab confirmed cases with 382 deaths. The overall case fatality rate in India is 4.75%.
Now with the data available, I did some calculations.

Month
Cases
Deaths
Case Fatality Rate
September 2009
6017
177
2.94%
October 2009
3464
140
4.04%
November 2009
4290
96
2.23%
December 2009
7708
382
4.96%
January 2010
1917
245
12.78%
February 2010
847
121
14.29%
March 2010
545
81
14.86%
April 2010
400
42
10.5%





As we can see, there has been a jump in the case fatality rate since December 2009 though the number of cases has decreased considerably. What may be the cause of these? As of now, I could not find any answers. May be I have to search a lot more.


There have been 289 cases of oseltamivir resistant H1N1 influenza as reported by WHO till 12th May 2010. Now that’s something every one should watch out for.

Sources:
  1. Situational Update on H1N1 http://mohfw-h1n1.nic.in/documents/PDF/EpidemiologicalTrendsInIndia.pdf
  2. WHO-Pandemic Influenza H1N1 update 101 http://www.who.int/csr/don/2010_05_21/en/index.html
  3. Consolidated status of Influenza A H1N1 11th May 2010 http://mohfw-h1n1.nic.in/documents/PDF/SituationalUpdatesArchives/may2010/Situational%20Updates%20on%2011.05.2010.pdf


1 comments:

  1. kaney said...
  2. Is H1N1 swine flu prevention something you think about? The virus has killed over 500 in the U.S. and many thousands across the globe. The W.H.O.(World Health Organization) a detachment of the United Nations, now predicts two thirds of the worlds population will be effected by swine flu. If H1N1 is allowed free reign it will spread like wildfire and governments in the west are gearing up to meet this threat.

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