Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts

An exercise on detecting fallacies in newspapers

Posted: Wednesday, November 16, 2011 | Posted by Debajyoti Datta | Labels: , 9 comments



I am quite fond of Justice M. Katju, the newly appointed chairman of the Press Council of India. For starters, he has correctly identified the deep seated rot within the Indian media. Will he able to do something about it? Only time will tell and I certainly hope he does but already the apologists for the New Media are coming out the woodwork and twisting his words to portray him a negative light. Some of these articles criticizing Justice Katju are out right non-sense and don’t deserve any attention of our grey cells but others are putting the spin with much more subtlety. Case in point being this piece published in the Hindu by Nirupama Subramanian. Unless you read the article critically you might end up agreeing to the points of the author. So let me deconstruct the article and point out the fallacies.

While deconstructing I would make references to SCHOPENHAUER'S 38 STRATAGEMS or 38 ways to win an argument, please note that it is something of a satire and really tells you how not to argue. So I begin my first salvo –

Nirupama Subramanian wrote: 
“Yet I find myself disagreeing with Justice Katju's broad swipe. It is easy to tar the entire media with one broad brush of criticism. But not all journalists are the same, just as not all judges are the same. There are many journalists who are doing exactly what Justice Katju thinks journalists should be doing, and they are not necessarily all high-profile.”

I refer to Schopenhauer’s first and sixth points - 
Carry your opponent's proposition beyond its natural limits; exaggerate it. The more general your opponent's statement becomes, the more objections you can find against it. The more restricted and narrow his or her propositions remain, the easier they are to defend by him or her.
And
Another plan is to confuse the issue by changing your opponent's words or what he or she seeks to prove.

Why do I say so? Nirupama Subramanian grossly exaggerates and misrepresents what justice Katju is saying. This is what Justice Katju actually said - 
"I am not saying that there are no good journalists at all in the media. There are many excellent journalists. P. Sainath is one of them, whose name should be written in letters of gold in the history of Indian journalism."

So Niruspama Subramanian constructs a straw man of her own and then proceeds to argue against the straw man. Unless we recognize she is arguing against a straw man we might think she is right but in reality she is hopelessly wrong as Justice Katju never said what she would like us to believe he said.

Secondly, Nirupama Subramanian wrote: 
“It also needs to be said that the media have made a lot more positive contribution than they are given credit for. Much of the corruption that has come to light over the last one year, all the scams that are currently churning the Indian polity, would have gone unnoticed had it not been for exposés by news organisations.”

This is a very common divisionary tactic used to deflect criticism called “whataboutery”. There are two forms of whataboutery, the author uses the second from which goes like this – it is an attempt to downplay the seriousness of the behavior being criticized by pointing to topics the commenter considers to be more important. 

To give a more straight forward example - consider a man who beats up his wife regularly. When produced in court, the accused gives the excuse, "My Lord, but I always obeyed the law before, I paid my taxes, I help my neighbors". Now should the man not be punished for beating up his wife based on this excuse? Compare with what the author is saying that the media is involved in paid news etc but in media's defense they have also uncovered scams so they shouldn't be criticized for paid news! The argument put forward is ridiculous. Justice Katju has never denied the good work done by the media; instead he is criticizing those aspects of the media which he considers unethical. By putting forward the argument of whataboutery, Nirupama Subramanian already concedes that Justice Katju is correct, so she tries to direct our attention to what she considers the good aspects of the media.

Lastly, Nirupama Subramanian wrote: 
“But it is also expected of the chairman of the Press Council to separate himself from Everyman, and take a more nuanced view of the complex terrain before him.”

In this she reveals her true intentions. Why must Justice Katju distance himself from the ordinary individual? Why are journalists so afraid of ordinary individuals? Is it because they realize that we mere mortals can see through their nonsense? What complex terrain is there? What is so complex in understanding that paid news is unethical and should be punishable? What does she mean by nuanced view? This is the prime example of the mentality of the some journalists, who fashion themselves as intellectuals. They seem to consider to us as retarded who will eat whatever they feed us.

I want a female doctor! Well no body is stopping you.

Posted: Wednesday, October 19, 2011 | Posted by Debajyoti Datta | Labels: , 25 comments


This post on cloud nine blog irked me considerably.  The premise of the post is an important one but the blog author takes it to an illogical extreme.
“India boasts of thousands of qualified doctors- with Indian degrees and the lesser mortals with Russian degrees. So, how does it feel when you end up in a hospital for delivery and the gynecologist about to examine you is a male? Yes, you read it right- a male gynecologist? Or how it would be to consult a male radiologist for a mammogram? A male radiologist who examines female genitalia? Though female gynecologists are aplenty, women often find themselves in tough corners when it comes to taking medical help in extreme cases. India is not a country that has limited medical aid and so why should the women compromise?”

First things first, you just don’t wake up one fine morning and end up in the delivery room of a hospital. There are 40 weeks before that. There is ample time to choose your gynaecologist who will deliver your baby. Same way you can always choose your radiologist. But that’s not the point, the point is what is the problem if a male gynaecologist examines a female patient or for that matter when a male doctor examines a female patient? Surely any one is bound to feel uncomfortable when one’s private’s are examined but note the word “examine” – it’s for the patient’s benefit, not for the doctor’s enjoyment. If at any moment the patient is feeling uncomfortable, they can walkout, complain against the doctor and do what not. But when you refuse to be examined by someone purely on the basis the presence or absence of one chromosome, it amounts to discrimination.
“We are a very conservative society and so it irks me when it comes to women consulting such male doctors in hospitals providing health care, especially in Government run hospitals and departmental health units. You can all it medical ethics, professionalism or anything under the sun, but a MALE IS A MALE! And there are few perverted men who put Hippocrates to shame...You must look at the way they handle their stethoscopes when they check women!”

Again such blatant prejudice against a person based on their chromosome! Ethics, professionalism doesn’t matter right? Well how would it feel if you heard it from a male chauvinist that a FEMALE IS A FEMALE, not point in letting them get a job or education, a FEMALE IS A FEMALE? And it is amusing to hear non-medics referencing Hippocrates! If you read the Hippocratic Oath, you will find that he was not quite the saint you consider him to be (by our present sensibilities of course).
“There are Government hospitals and primary health centers that have a single male/ female doctor taking care of everything starting from a delivery to mammogram. Probably that might be the reason why most rural women shun these hospitals.”

Not familiar with reality, are we? Happens when we make up arguments from thin air to support our preconceived prejudices.
“Let there be no bullshitting saying- this is an insult to doctors of the world and all that blah, blah...How many of you know the unfair advantage doctors take on such unlucky women? Whether there is a chaperone or no chaperone, their sexual apparatus goes on an overdrive, sensing helpless victims. Sexual Boundary Violations ( SBVs) have burgeoned at an alarming rate in India-  which include unnecessary physical examinations, inappropriate touching, sexual jokes with patient, sexual touch and finally there are cases of sexual intercourse too...Read this study published in Indian Journal of Medical Ethics. Unless the doctors try to get their medical ethics right, this problem will be persistent in Indian society. And will the Government bring a bill to say- " Women doctors for women and male doctors for men"??? That is a million dollar question.”

Let’s talk about the study shall we? It is apparent that the blog author has no experience in reading or evaluating medical literature. Happens. If I commented on an Astrophysics article same thing would have happened to me. One point in the study makes the whole study wobbly and unreliable. The authors of the study designed a questionnaire but it was not validated. Why this is important? Let us suppose you want to measure blood pressure and you made your own blood pressure measuring instrument. Unless you validate your instrument by calibrating it with a standard blood pressure measuring device, your instrument is useless.

The most illogical part of the whole post is that of the government bill!! To put the non-sense in perspective consider this example. Some terrorist who were Muslim hijacked a plane and crashed it into the twin towers. Thus the government must bring a bill to prevent all Muslims from flying! Ridiculous you say? Replace some terrorists who were Muslims with some doctors who were male and hijacking a plane with any misdeed you may think and ban them from examining females. That’s how ridiculous and non-sensical the whole premise is.

Who is more corrupt? Correlating politicians and corruption using Google

Posted: Wednesday, August 31, 2011 | Posted by Debajyoti Datta | Labels: 3 comments

This post was inspired by a post on The Madura Beats.

Let me start off by saying that this should not be taken seriously. It’s a quick and dirty work of half hour and not a rigorous study. If you want a rigorous study then probably a journal on political science would be a good starting place. That being said let me begin the post.

There is a nifty tool powered by Google called Google Insights for Search that lets you see the interest in particular search items overtime. You can also compare different search items and see how they vary over time. So I began my experiment. I searched for the search terms “lalu prasad yadav” and “corrupt” originating from India from 2004 till date. The graph shows the Google output.

I then downloaded the data and fired up R (a very powerful free statistical software). If you notice carefully you will see that the interest in “corrupt” went up sharply towards the end, that’s probably because of the recent interest in anticorruption movement. Hence I removed the outliers from the data using the rm.outlier() function of outliers package in R. Then I calculated Pearson’s correlation coefficient to see if the searches of Lalu Prasad Yadav and corrupt are correlated and plotted a scatter graph. The results are below.

Lalu Prasad Yadav and Corrupt
Pearson's product-moment correlation
data:  lpydata$lalu.prasad.yadav and lpydata$corrupt 
t = -6.4745, df = 398, p-value = 2.806e-10
alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0 
95 percent confidence interval: -0.3947899 -0.2172100 
sample estimates: cor = -0.3086874 
Scatter gram of interest in LaluPrasad Yadav and Corrupt
I did the same using the search terms “manmohan singh” and “corrupt”. The results are below –

Manmohan Singh and Corrupt
Pearson's product-moment correlation
data:  newdata1$manmohan.singh and newdata1$corrupt 
t = 7.7384, df = 398, p-value = 8.371e-14
alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0 
95 percent confidence interval: 0.2732764 0.4439476 
sample estimates:cor= 0.361638
Scatter gram of Manmohan Singh and Corrupt
The findings are counterintuitive. Though searches of both Manmohan Singh and Lalu Prasad Yadav are weakly correlated with the search of coruupt, they are correlated in the opposite way. Manmohan Singh has a positive correlation with corrupt while Lalu Prasad Yadav has a negative correlation with corruption. This means more the interest in the search term “corrupt”, more the interest in search term “Manmohan Singh” while more the interest in search term “corrupt”, less the interest in search term “Lalu Prasad Yadav”. Not what you expect, eh?

What does this mean? This means correlation doesn’t equal to causation and that my model is too simple to model the actual reality! Of interest, in the beginning of the tine series, there was almost no interest in the search term “Lalu Prasad Yadav” but there was a high interest in “corrupt”. Probably this screwed up the results.

Edited to Add -
Spurred on by the comment of confused yuppie, I did a bit more calculation, now comparing "lalu prasad yadav" and "manmohan singh" wit the search term "honest". The results -

Lalu Prasad Yadav and Honest


Pearson's product-moment correlation
data:  lpynew$lalu.prasad.yadav and lpynew$honest 
t = 0.1226, df = 59, p-value = 0.9028
alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0 
95 percent confidence interval: -0.2368133  0.2667080 
sample estimates: cor = 0.01595912 
Lalu Prasad Yadav and honest
Manmohan Singh and Honest -

And then I run into problems. Somehow on downloading the .CSV file the data for honest is not there. So I can't test for correlation. I anyone is able to find the data for honest then please let me know.

At least the interest for Lalu Prasad Yadav is not correlated with honest.

Measuring corruption in India

Posted: Thursday, August 25, 2011 | Posted by Debajyoti Datta | Labels: 1 comments


Let’s have a look at the level of corruption in India in the past few years.

Fig. 1 Global Integrity Index
Fig. 1 is the data from the Global Integrity report which measures legal framework of a country and the actual implementation of the framework associated with all things related to corruption. More the value less is the corruption. The data for 2005 and 2008 are missing. The integrity index should be interpreted as -
  • Very strong (90+)
  • Strong (80+)
  • Moderate (70+)
  • Weak (60+)
  • Very Weak (< 60)

Hence India is fluctuating between weak and moderate integrity.

Fig. 2 Percentage paying bribes
Fig. 2 is prepared with data from the Global CorruptionBarometer which shows what percentage of the survey respondents gave a bribe. Data for 2007 is missing. It is interesting to see that the percentage shot up suddenly in 2009. Wonder why?

Fig. 3 Corruption Perception index of India
Fig. 3 shows the Corruption perception index of Transparency International. More value indicates less corruption.

There has been gradual decrease in the level of corruption across the years but some may say it’s not enough. Will the anti-corruption movement change the scene. We have to wait and see.

Should giving a bribe be made legal? A radical idea against corruption

Posted: Tuesday, August 23, 2011 | Posted by Debajyoti Datta | Labels: 3 comments


I came across this radical idea propounded by Dr. Kaushik Basu, the Chief Economic adviser to the Ministry of Finance. The idea is to make bribing legal for giving a certain kind of bribe, which Dr. Basu calls “Harassment bribes”. The suggestion is that this will reduce the incidence of harassment bribes. How? The logic is as follows – a person is forced to pay a harassment bribe but he is unwilling to do so. According the prevailing law both the bribe giver and the bribe taker are equally wrong and liable to punished. Hence after giving the bribe, there is no incentive for the bribe giver to come forward. Instead, he is just as likely as the bribe payer to be punished if he comes forward. Under the new proposal, the bribe payer wouldn’t be punished only the bribe taker will. Hence the bribe payer can come forward against the bribe taker. How will he prove that bribe taker took the money? He will take a secret photograph or write down the numbers of notes paid etc.

Do we need this? Well, we can take photos of the bribe taker soliciting for bribes; we don’t have to actually pay them. That being said, this is an interesting idea. As the new law, if introduced, will be disproportionately against bribe takers, if properly implemented this has the potential to stop harassment bribes which in my opinion is the most pressing problem facing us. I, at least for one support this idea.

One problem though, how do we define harassment bribes? Ideas such as these, which are being lost in the din of anti corruption clamour need more wider promotion. I urge everyone to have a look at Dr. Basu's original article.

Further reading:

Will Anna Hazare succeed in curbing corruption?

Posted: Monday, August 22, 2011 | Posted by Debajyoti Datta | Labels: , 4 comments

Everyone has an opinion on Anna Hazare and the anti corruption movement; so I guess why should I be left behind? Being a skeptic I decided to look at the whole thing from a more basic and scientific perspective.

Let’s see what Anna Hazare is proposing – he is asking to pass a bill that will supposedly curb corruption. Here I will not comment on his methods and leave them for a future post may be. I will deal with a much more basic premise; can such a bill reduce corruption? The point that is of utmost importance here is Anna Hazare is following a top down approach, not a bottom up approach. Do we really know if the people of India want such a bill? Even lakhs of supporters in a country of 100 crore does not mean much and I’m being very generous in saying that he has lakhs of supporters.

A look at the science now - why do people bribe? I will leave out extortion by the bribe takers because I feel it will not be a stable system unless people are willing to give bribes. One theory is of “Speed money” or efficiency theory of bribes (see Huntington 1968, Lui 1985). This basically says that in a resource constrained setting people will pay bribe for efficiency. For example, let us suppose that you go to passport office to get a passport. The office can issue a passport within 14 days. But you need the passport in 5 days. So you bribe to get it done. This can be generalized in any resource constrained setting where the act of bribing results in a net profit and I use profit in a very general sense, not only monetary. The act of bribing will only stop when the cost of the bribe exceeds the expected profit, otherwise one will stand to lose by bribing.

This brings me to a very interesting study. Recently a study titled “Greasing the Palm. Can Collectivism Promote Bribery?” published in the July issue of the journal Psychological Science showed that companies which belong to countries with collectivist cultures (East Asian cultures) were more likely to bribe. What does this mean? Say there are 10 people standing in a queue and one of them pays a bribe to get ahead; then one or more others standing in the line will also be tempted to pay bribe to get ahead. They would justify it with the reasoning that everyone else is bribing so why shouldn’t I? The act of bribing thus becomes a collective act. Each act of bribing legitimizes the next act but only in a twisted misguided way.

It has also been shown that companies that make more profits also pay higher bribes. This in effect creates a vicious cycle. The company bribes to make more profit (see the efficiency theory of bribing) and with more profits they bribe even more. And the cycle goes on.

So will a top down bill work? All the evidence shows it won’t. So how can we reduce corruption? We begin at the bottom by eliminating the need for giving and taking a bribe.

Further reading: